Staff Report #13
August 27, 2025
To All Commissioners
Re: 2026 Assessment Growth Business Case
Recommendation
The Commission:
i) APPROVE a submission of an Assessment Growth Business Case for 2026 which provides for service expansion to:
- Cedar Hollow;
- Innovation Park, Summerside and Sheffield;
- Kains Road and Upperpoint Blvd; and
- West Byron
at an annual cost of $2,130,900; and
ii) DIRECT administration to prepare and submit the Business Case in the required City of London format.
Background
At the February 25, 2025 Strategic Priorities and Policy Committee meeting, a report outlining the 2025 Assessment Growth Funding allocations was received and during debate, a number of Councilors raised concerns that London Transit had not submitted a business case as part of the 2025 budget process. Civic administration indicated during the debate that LTC has been challenged with identifying appropriate metrics to support growth funding requests under this program. A subsequent motion was passed by Council which directed civic administration to continue to work with London Transit Commission and London Public Library administration to determine the appropriate metrics for which these agencies may apply for assessment growth funding.
London Transit administration held follow up discussions with civic administration with respect to this motion, and have determined metrics that can be included in an Assessment Growth Business Case that support the ask (number of additional residents and commercial/institutional buildings within 400 metre access to public transit service).
When the Five Year Conventional Service Plan was prepared, detailed analysis of conditions on existing routes was utilized as a key input with the rationale being that improvements need to be directed at existing services in an effort to maintain existing riders prior to expanding services to attract additional riders onto already crowded routes. It is important to recognize the ridership on a new route or route extension into a new development area would in all likelihood need to transfer onto an existing route to complete their transit journey, and as such, increased pressure would be placed on those routes already experiencing difficulty. The majority of the improvements required for existing routes occur during peak operating times, which require expansion buses in order to be implemented. The allocation of available expansion buses in the capital budget program have been allocated to service improvements on existing routes through the multi-year budget period.
In order to proceed with service enhancements to new areas, expansion buses are required, and given the current delivery timeframes for new bus orders, it is anticipated that buses ordered in 2026 subsequent to approval of an Assessment Growth Business Case, would not be available for service until late 2027 at the earliest. This delayed delivery timeframe provides the opportunity to allocate the required funding for the expansion buses in the initial two years (2026 and 2027) of assessment growth funding, and then provide the annualized funding required to operate the new services beginning in January 2028. This approach was discussed with civic administration and all parties concurred that this approach would be acceptable under the current Assessment Growth Policy.
Subsequent to this discussion and concurrence on approach, administration reviewed the Five Year Service Plan in an effort to identify new areas for service which could be included in an Assessment Growth Business Case for 2026. Detail with respect to each of the expansion options included in the Fiver Year Service Plan is provided below, and broken down between those options included in the report recommendation as well as those that are recommended for consideration in a 2027 Assessment Growth Business Case request.
It should be noted, for all of the recommended service expansions that include service through existing service areas, the required annual operating hours and additional peak period vehicles have only been calculated for the portion of the route serving new areas. The other associated hours required for the change to be implemented have been included as part of the 18,000 annualized hours approved by Council through the multi-year budget process.
Service Expansions Included in the 2026 Assessment Growth Business Case
Cedar Hollow
The majority of residents in the Cedar Hollow subdivision, located east of Highbury, south of Fanshawe Park Road and north of Kilally, are over 2km to the closest transit stop. This is a fast growing area for students attending Fanshawe College with an increasing demand for transit service within the 400 metre travel distance parameter.
As part of the 2024 Draft Service Plan a service extension to Cedar Hollow was initially proposed as part of the 2024 Draft Service Plan, and online and in-person public feedback sessions were held in the community with a significant amount of local support for the proposed change. The improvement was deferred in 2024 due to the limited-service growth hours available and the need to focus available resources on the areas of service where the most significant issues were being faced (i.e. crowding, schedule adherence). This approach was based on the principle of maximizing investment in areas that will address the most significant issues facing existing riders in an effort to mitigate ridership loss due to unreliable service.
It is proposed that Route 25 would be extended into the area with a branch route operating on a 40 minute peak period frequency. Route 25 currently operates between Masonville Mall and Fanshawe College via Fanshawe Park Road, Highbury and Huron. Extending the 25A branch into the Cedar Hollow community will provide direct service to Masonville and Fanshawe College and provide transfer opportunities to access many other areas of the City.
This change would require one additional peak period bus and approximately 6,500 annual operating hours.
Innovation Park, Sheffield and Summerside
As part of the 2020-2024 Service Plan Framework, it was proposed that Route 37 would be modified to connect Argyle Mall to White Oaks Mall via Innovation Park. Given resource constraints and competing priorities, an extension of Route 37 was deferred for future consideration. With the growth of the residential area in the Sheffield and Summerside neighbourhoods as well as the growing industrial areas in both Innovation Park and Wilton Grove, there have been increased requests for service extended further into these areas.
It is proposed to extend Route 37 to White Oaks Mall via Veteran’s Memorial Parkway, Commissioners Road, Chelton Road and Bradley. The proposed extension of the route would be a fixed route service due to the anticipated demand for transit based on the growing Industrial and residential areas it would serve.
An extension to White Oaks Mall would provide this route with additional options to connect White Oaks Mall, Argyle Mall, the Industrial areas and the developing neighbourhoods along Commissioners Road East. Additionally, the extension represents an opportunity to further expand service in the Summerside community, with new peak period connections to employment areas in the rest of the network via White Oaks Mall and Argyle Mall. Service is proposed to operate weekday peak periods between 6am and 9 am and 2pm and 6pm on a 30-minute frequency.
This change would require one additional peak period bus and approximately 2,000 annual operating hours.
Kains Road and Upperpoint Blvd
In recent years the area west of Kains Road and along Upperpoint Blvd has become a fast-growing neighbourhood without access to transit within a 400 metre walking distance. Most notably is the growing post secondary student population which has placed an increased demand for greater access to transit in the area.
As part of the 2025-2029 Five Year Service Plan Framework, there are a number of changes to existing routing proposed in the southwest area of the City to provide improved access to transit. The new Route 22 proposed to operate in the Riverbend area is also proposed to be extended to Kains Road and Upperpoint Blvd to provide greater access to transit within 400 meteres. The Route would operate on a 30 minute frequency during weekday and Saturday peak periods and on a 35 to 40 minute frequency during all other operating periods.
This change would require one additional peak period bus and approximately 2,000 annual operating hours.
West Byron
As with he Kains Road and Upperpoint Blvd areas, the area of West Byron is another fast growing residential area in the City of London. With the increasing population has come an increased demand for closer access to transit service. Currently the closest transit service to this area operates along Griffith St which is upwards of 2km for the residents along Wickerson Road. This area is also seeing an increased demand for transit service from a growing post-secondary student population.
The proposed change would be to extend the new Route 39 (proposed for implementation as part of the five year service plan) to operate along Byron Baseline, Wickerson Road, Tibet Bulter Blvd and Ironwood Road. The route would operate every 30 minutes weekday peak and early evening as well as Saturday early AM, base and peak periods. A 40 minute frequency would be implemented during all other operating periods.
The change would require 1 additional peak period bus and approximately 2,900 annual operating hours.
The table below sets out the details that will be included in the Assessment Growth Business Case should the Commission approve the report recommendation.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | |
| Funding Required | $2,130,900 | $2,130,000 | $2,130,000 |
| Increased Fleet Size | 4 | ||
| Increased Service Hours | 13,400 | ||
| Increased Ridership | 201,000 | ||
| New residences within 400m of a transit route | 9,975 | ||
| New commercial and Institutional addresses within 400m of a transit route | 31 |
The metrics set out in the table above will be incorporated into the Assessment Growth Business Case that is submitted to the City of London for consideration.
Service Expansions Recommended for 2027 Assessment Growth Business Case
Hyde Park
Presently the majority of service in West London is provided by local, circuitous routes. As part of the Five-Year Service Plan, structural changes to the network in this part of the City are planned to improve connectivity and enhance coverage of the network. As part of the structural changes, it is proposed to introduce a new route to provide service along Coronation Drive and the west portion of Sarnia Road which are currently outside of the 400 metre travel distance to existing transit routes.
The proposed new route would connect residents outside of the 400 meter travel distance to transit with direct service between the Hyde Park Power Centre and Western University via Hyde Park Road, Coronation Drive and Sarnia Road. Service would operate every 30 minutes Weekday peak and early evening as well as Saturday early AM, base and peak periods. A 40 minute frequency would be implemented during all other operating periods.
This change would require 5 additional peak period buses and 15,000 annual operating hours.
Fox Hollow
Currently London Transit service does not operate north of Fanshawe Park Road west of Wonderland resulting in the vast majority of residents in the Fox Hollow neighbourhood residing outside of the 400 metre travel distance to transit.
Service modifications are proposed to Route 34 in northwest London as part of the Five-Year Service Plan Framework in 2029. As part of these modifications it is proposed to introduce Route 32 which would take over the north end of the current Route 34 as well as be extended into the Fox Hollow neighbourhood to provide connections to important destinations including connections to the rest of the LTC network at Masonville Mall. 30 minute weekday frequencies are proposed between 6 am and 6pm with all other operating periods at frequencies between 35 and 40 minutes. As these changes are dependant on one another, they need to be implemented in the same service year, as such, this improvement is being recommended for 2027 Assessment Growth Business Case, which would see service changes implemented in 2029.
This change would required 2 additional peak period vehicles and 5,618 annual operating hours.
Next Steps
Subsequent to Council approval of the Assessment Growth Business Case, the four expansion buses would be ordered and work would begin on further defining the routes and associated schedules. As noted earlier in this report, it is anticipated this improvement would be implemented in January 2028. Should the entire request not be approved, administration would undertake to prioritize the improvements that could be made within the available resources and in alignment with any related service changes on existing routes, and table a report with recommendations on how to proceed within the funding available.
Recommended by:
Katie Burns, Director of Planning
Mike Gregor, Director of Finance
Concurred in by:
Kelly S. Paleczny, General Manager