Staff Report #8
August 31, 2026
To All Commissioners
Re: 2027 Assessment Growth Business Case
Recommendation
The Commission:
- APPROVE a submission of an Assessment Growth Business Case for 2027 which provides for a fixed route service expansion in the Hyde Park area at an annual cost of $2,096,200 and the implementation of Alternative Service Delivery Zones to the Fox Hollow and North Lambeth/South Byron Areas at an annual cost of $1,451,800; and
- DIRECT Administration to prepare and submit the Business Case in the required City of London format.
Background
When the Five Year Conventional Service Plan was prepared, detailed analysis of conditions on existing routes was utilized as a key input with the rationale being that improvements need to be directed at existing services in an effort to maintain existing riders prior to expanding services to attract additional riders onto already crowded routes. It is important to recognize the ridership on a new route or route extension into a new development area would in all likelihood need to transfer onto an existing route to complete their transit journey, and as such, increased pressure would be placed on those routes already experiencing difficulty. The majority of the improvements required for existing routes occur during peak operating times, which require expansion buses in order to be implemented. The allocation of available expansion buses in the capital budget program have been allocated to service improvements on existing routes through the multi-year budget period.
The 2026 Assessment Growth Business Case which was approved by the Commission and subsequently approved by Municipal Council covered the cost of four expansion buses, which will ultimately provide extended conventional transit service to Cedar Hollow, Innovation Park, Summerside and Sheffield, Kains Road and Upperpoint Blvd, and West Byron. These services will be implemented in 2028 subsequent to delivery of the required buses.
The 2026 Assessment Growth report also identified a new fixed route service in the Hyde Park area for inclusion in the 2027 Assessment Growth request.
In addition to the recommendations relating to new conventional transit routes included in the Five Year Service Plan, the introduction of Alternative Service Delivery (ASD) areas of service are also recommended for areas that may not initially warrant a full conventional route based on estimated ridership demands. This type of service has been utilized in many jurisdictions as a way to offer access to public transit to areas in an effort to grow ridership which ultimately results in the addition of a conventional route when ridership meets the required thresholds. ASD is a flexible, shared public transit service that operates without a fixed route or rigid schedule. Customers pre-book a trip using an app or contacting the booking line, indicating their starting location and destination. The design for the ASD service in London will be a Stop to Hub design in which bus stops will be located throughout the ASD zone for passengers to access the service with key destinations as the hubs. These hubs will be in areas that have opportunities to connect to the fixed route network for passengers to complete their trips as needed. As these are pre-booked rides, the software will prepare dynamic routing for the most efficient service based on the origins and destinations of the requested rides for each trip.
Dillon Consulting was contracted to complete a detailed assessment of possible ASD zones to launch the first ASD service in London. Initially in the Five-Year Plan, the Innovation Park and Lambeth areas had been identified as possible candidates for the conversion of fixed route service to ASD. After further review, the current ridership per revenue service hour in each of these areas is already nearing the threshold for converting to a fixed route service. As the goal for introducing ASD service is to grow ridership to eventually be able to move to a fixed route service, moving these areas to ASD is not recommended. As these two areas were ruled out as possible ASD candidates, other areas within London without current fixed route service were assessed to determine possible locations for the introduction of ASD service.
The remainder of this report provides additional context on each of the recommended improvements included in the report recommendation for Assessment Growth in 2027.
Introduction of Alternative Service Delivery Zones
As previously indicated, a review undertaken with the assistance of Dillon Consulting identified two ASD zones for implementation as set out below.
Zone 1– Fox Hollow area bounded by Hyde Park, Wonderland, Fanshawe Park Road and Sunningdale. Stops would be located within the area with main destinations of the Hyde Park Power Centre at Fanshawe and Hyde Park and Masonville Mall, see Figure I below.
Zone 2– three, non-adjacent areas within north Lambeth and south Byron which fall outside of the 400-meter travel distance to a fixed route service, see Figure II below. As with Zone 1 bus stops would be located within each of the zones and connect to major destinations such as Hyde Park and Oxford and Westmount Mall allowing for connections to the fixed route network.
Figure I- Alternative Service Deliver Zone I
Figure II- Alternative Service Delivery Zone II
Each of the ASD zones would be served by a single vehicle operating during all service periods. It is expected that with the anticipated average boardings per revenue service hour of between 1.3 and 2.5 for Zone 1 and 1.0 and 1.9 for Zone 2, that the service would be provided using smaller vehicles.
Dillon Consulting is continuing to work to finalize the Alternative Service Delivery report, including options for software providers for booking trips. The final report will be presented to the Commission at a future meeting.
ASD Zone Cost and Impact Summary
| 2027 | |
| Funding Required | $1,451,800 |
| Increased Service Hours | 13,540 |
| Increased Ridership | 22,700 |
| New residences within 400m of a transit route | 6,632 |
| New commercial and Institutional addresses within 400m of a transit route | 11 |
New Route 40
As part of the 2025-2029 Service Plan Framework, it was proposed to introduce a new Route 40 operating between the Hyde Park Power Centre and Western University via Dalmagarry, Coronation, South Carriage, Hyde Park, Sarnia and Western Road. The new route would expand service into a growing residential area that is currently without transit service within the standard 400 meter travel distance. The proposed route would provide connections to a major shopping/employment area as well as Western University. Both destinations also have multiple transit options for connections to the rest of the network. The route is proposed to operate on a 40 minute frequency during all operating hours. Given bus delivery timelines, it is assumed this route would begin operating in the fall of 2028.
Route 40 Cost and Impact Summary
| 2027 | 2028 | |
| Funding Required | $2,096,200 | $2,096,200 |
| Increased Fleet Size | 2 | |
| Increased Service Hours | 13,700 | |
| Increased Ridership | 205,500 | |
| New residences within 400m of a transit route | 1,286 | |
| New commercial and Institutional addresses within 400m of a transit route | 3 |
The metrics set out in the tables above will be incorporated into the Assessment Growth Business Case that is submitted to the City of London for consideration.
Next Steps
Subsequent to Council approval of the Assessment Growth Business Case, the two expansion buses would be ordered and work would begin on further defining the routes and associated schedules for the Route 40, and work relating to the delivery of service into the new ASD zones would be undertaken. Should the entire Assessment Growth Business Case request not be approved, Administration would undertake an assessment to determine what improvements could be made within the available resources and table a report to the Commission with recommendations on how to proceed within the funding available.
Recommended by:
Katie Burns, Director of Planning
Mike Gregor, Director of Finance
Concurred in by:
Kelly S. Paleczny, General Manager