Staff Report #1 – 2021 Service Plan – Conventional Transit

Staff Report #1

January 27, 2021

To All Commissioners

Re: 2021 Service Plan – Conventional Transit

Recommendation

That the Commission:

I. APPROVE the 2021 Conventional Transit Service Plan as set out below, SUBJECT TO Municipal Council approval of the Commission’s Assessment Growth Business Case for Transit Service Level Improvements as submitted and noting the recommended changes represent approximately 18,000 additional service hours:

a. Route 6: Saturday – Increase frequency from 55 minutes to 30 minutes between 6 am and 8:30 am

b. Route 7: Saturday- Increase frequency from 60 minutes to 35 minutes between 6 am and 8 am

c. Route 9

  1. Saturday – Increase frequency from 60 minutes to 30 minutes between 6 am and 8 am
  2. Sunday – Increase frequency from 60 minutes to 35 minutes between 6 am and 9:30 am

d. Route 10

  1. Sunday – Increase frequency from 55 minutes to 30 minutes between 6:30 am and 8:30 am
  2. Sunday Increase frequency from 60 minutes to 30 minutes between 6:30 pm and 11:30 pm

e. Route 12

  1. Weekday – Increase frequency from 60 minutes to 30 minutes between 9:30 pm and 12:30 am
  2. Saturday – Increase frequency from 60 minutes to 35 minutes between 6 am and 8 am
  3. Saturday – Increase frequency from 60 minutes to 30 minutes between 8 am and 12:30 pm
  4. Saturday – Increase frequency from 60 minutes to 30 minutes between 6 pm and 12:30 am
  5. Sunday – Increase frequency from 60 minutes to 30 minutes between 8 am and 10 pm

f. Route 15: Sunday – Increase frequency from 55 minutes to 30 minutes between 6 am and 9 am

g. Route 19

  1. Weekday – Increase frequency from 47 minutes to 35 minutes between 10 pm and 1 am
  2. Saturday – Increase frequency from 50 minutes to 35 minutes between 8 am and 10 am
  3. Saturday – Increase frequency from 52 minutes to 40 minutes between 6 pm and 9 pm
  4. Saturday – Increase frequency from 47 minutes to 40 minutes between 9 pm and 11 pm
  5. Sunday – Increase frequency from 50 minutes to 35 minutes between 8:30 am and 12 pm
  6. Sunday – Increase frequency from 52 minutes to 40 minutes between 12 pm and 5 pm
  7. Sunday – Increase frequency from 50 minutes to 35 minutes between 5 pm and 8 pm

h. Route 25

  1. Weekday – Increase frequency from 60 minutes to 25 minutes between 9:30 pm and 12 am
  2. Saturday – Increase frequency from 60 minutes to 25 minutes between 6 am and 8:30 am
  3. Saturday – Increase frequency from 60 minutes to 30 minutes between 7:30 pm and 11:30 pm
  4. Sunday – Increase frequency from 60 minutes to 25 minutes between 9 am and 3 pm
  5. Sunday – Increase frequency from 60 minutes to 30 minutes between 7:30 pm and 11:30 pm

i. Route 31

  1. Weekday – Increase frequency from 55 minutes to 30 minutes between 6:30 pm and 9 pm
  2. Weekday – Increase frequency from 48 minutes to 30 minutes between 9 pm and 11:30 pm
  3. Saturday – Increase frequency from 50 minutes to 25 minutes between 8 am and 10 am
  4. Saturday – Increase frequency from 52 minutes to 25 minutes between 6 pm and 11:30 pm
  5. Saturday – Increase frequency from 48 minutes to 25 minutes between 9 pm and 11:30 pm
  6. Sunday – Increase frequency from 50 minutes to 25 minutes between 8 am and 10:30 pm

j. Route 34

  1. Weekday – Increase frequency from 60 minutes to 40 minutes between 6 am and 7 am
  2. Weekday – Increase frequency from 60 minutes to 40 minutes between 1 pm and 11 pm
  3. Saturday – Increase frequency from 60 minutes to 40 minutes between 8 am and 10 am
  4. Saturday – Increase frequency from 60 minutes to 40 minutes between 7 pm and 11 pm
  5. Sunday – Increase frequency from 60 minutes to 40 minutes between 10 am and 9 pm

k. Route 95: Weekday – Introduce a Weekday Peak Period Semi-Express route operating on a 30 minute frequency between 6 am and 9 am and again between 2 pm and 6 pm

l. Route 102: Modify Route to turn at Richmond and Queens instead of looping the downtown

m. Route 106: Weekday – Increase frequency from 20 minutes to 10 minutes between 6 pm and 9 pm

II.  DIRECT administration to order the two expansion buses required for the 2021 Service Plan subsequent to Municipal Council’s approval of the Assessment Growth Business Case for 2021 Transit Service Improvements.

Background

2020 was to have been the first year of London Transit’s second Five-Year Service Plan Framework (the Framework) which sets out six strategic directions in an effort to improve the transit experience system-wide:

  1. Enhance the Overall Levels of Service
  2. Explore Alternative Service Delivery Models in New Communities
  3. Improve Direct Connections
  4. Build on the Express Route Network
  5. Eliminate 60 Minute Headways
  6. Minimize Impacts on Existing Passengers

With the declaration of a Global Pandemic in March 2020 and the recommendation by civic administration that only urgent essential growth requests be considered for funding in 2020, the Commission approved the deferral of the 2020 Service Plan to be reviewed for implementation in 2021. Civic administration has confirmed their intent to proceed with Assessment Growth Business Cases as part of the 2021 budget approval process, with the intent to seek Municipal Council approval in early March 2021. The Commission’s Assessment Growth Business Case submitted as part of the 2021 budget process included 18,000 additional annual service hours on the conventional transit service, and 6,000 additional annual service hours on the specialized transit service. As set out in the report recommendation, the Commission is being asked to approve the 2021 Conventional Service Plan subject to the approval of the Assessment Growth Business Case. This approach will allow planning staff to begin work on the 2021 Service Plan immediately, rather than waiting until the end of March for the Commission’s final approval.

At the October 28, 2020 meeting, the Commission approved the 2021 Draft Conventional Service Plan and directed administration to finalize the plan for the January 27, 2021 meeting. The draft 2021 Service Plan changes focused on enhancing overall service levels along routes where it was deemed warranted based on current ridership and beginning to eliminate 60-minute frequencies. The table set out in Enclosure I provides a summary of the changes included in the Draft 2021 Conventional Service Plan as well as commentary with respect to the status of each change in the Final Plan as recommended in this report.

Public Consultation

Given current realities with the COVID-19 pandemic, in-person public engagement sessions were not held as part of the 2021 consultation process. To gather public feedback an online survey was available between November 9 and December 18, 2020. Additionally, anyone wishing to discuss the proposed changes in more detail were invited to schedule a phone meeting with a member of the Planning Department. As always, public feedback could also be provided through emailing or phoning the Customer Service department.

The feedback received from the public was limited with only 100 surveys completed, no requests for phone meetings and very limited contacts received through customer service. Given the majority of the proposed changes had already been consulted on through the 2020 service planning process and the changes focused on improving frequency of service, it was expected that response rates would be lower than that traditionally received.

Assessment

As indicated throughout 2020 in the numerous COVID-19 Service and Ridership Impact reports, ridership on both the conventional and specialized services has been significantly impacted through the pandemic period. While ridership levels have continued to be measured and reported on, what can’t yet be measured is the impact that working from home, business closures and riders who have found alternative methods of travel will ultimately have on both ridership levels and patterns going forward.

Transit systems across the country have recognized that rebuilding ridership post-pandemic will require a different approach to service design and delivery. Routes that were extremely efficient pre-pandemic may no longer be. London Transit is positioned well to respond to these challenges given the relatively high revenue recovery thresholds required for routes to continue to be considered viable; however, the service structure will not be immune to necessary changes going forward.

At this time, it is not known when ridership will return to pre-March 2020 levels. Additionally, when ridership does begin to return, it is not known what the demand for service will be or if ridership demand will be on the same routes as has been historically seen. Some of the routes that were experiencing overcrowding and schedule adherence concerns pre-pandemic are anticipated to return to that status as things return to normal. Routes servicing Western University and Fanshawe College are included in this category given the level to which students rely on public transit for their travel throughout the city, and the anticipation that at some point in the future, students will be returning to campus for in-class learning.

Through further analysis of the changes included in the Draft Plan, coupled with the unknowns regarding where ridership demand will return, attention was turned to focus on what improvements could be made in 2021 that will improve the overall attractiveness of the service, supporting the rebuilding of ridership post-pandemic. An important aspect of regaining transit customers who were lost during the pandemic is to ensure the service is attractive, and considered a viable option for travel. One of the strategic directions for the Five Year Conventional Transit Service Plan is the elimination of 60-minute headways. Improving frequencies on routes throughout the system will enhance the viability of transit for many Londoners and will provide a solid basis for rebuilding ridership. Additionally, frequency improvements across the system will ensure that the local transit system is well positioned when the rapid transit corridors begin to operate.

Given the aforementioned assessments and considerations, administration has revised the Final 2021 Conventional Transit Service Plan to focus on the elimination of 60-minute headways across the system. In addition, routes that serve Western University and Fanshawe College that had been experiencing issues prior to the pandemic are recommended for service level improvements and/or route modifications.

Table I below, sets out the final recommended service plan improvements for 2021 as set out in the report recommendations.

Table I- 2021 Recommended Service Plan Improvements

Route Description of Recommended Service Change Annual Service Hours Peak Buses
Route 6 Saturday- Increase frequency from 55 minutes to 30 minutes between 6 am and 8:30 am 122
Route 7 Saturday- Increase frequency from 60 minutes to 35 minutes between 6 am and 8 am 117
Route 9 Saturday- Increase frequency from 60 minutes to 30 minutes between 6 am and 8 am 139
Sunday- Increase frequency from 60 minutes to 35 minutes between 6 am and 9:30 am 217
Route 10 Sunday- Increase frequency from 55 minutes to 30 minutes between 6:30 am and 8:30 am 372
Sunday- Increase frequency from 60 minutes to 30 minutes between 6:30 pm and 11:30 pm 837
Route 12 Weekday- Increase frequency from 60 minutes to 30 minutes between 9:30 pm and 12:30 am 756
Saturday- Increase frequency from 60 minutes to 35 minutes between 6 am and 8 am 104
Saturday- Increase frequency from 60 minutes to 30 minutes between 8 am and 12:30 pm 234
Saturday- Increase frequency from 60 minutes to 30 minutes between 6 pm and 12:30 am 338
Sunday- Increase frequency from 60 minutes to 30 minutes between 8 am and 10 pm 868
Route 15 Sunday- Increase frequency from 55 minutes to 30 minutes between 6 am and 8:30 am 341
Route 19 Weekday- Increase frequency from 47 minutes to 35 minutes between 10 pm and 1 am 630
Saturday- Increase frequency from 50 minutes to 35 minutes between 8 am and 10 am 91
Saturday- Increase frequency from 52 minutes to 40 minutes between 6 pm and 9 pm 156
Saturday- Increase from 47 minutes to 40 minutes between 9pm and 11 pm 104
Sunday- Increase frequency from 50 to 35 minute between 8:30 am and 12 pm 217
Sunday- Increase frequency from 52 to 40 minutes between 12 pm and 5 pm 310
Sunday- Increase frequency from 50 minutes to 35 minutes between 5 pm and 8 pm 156
Route 25 Weekday- increase frequency from 60 minutes to 25 minutes between 9:30 pm and 12 am 567
Saturday- Increase frequency from 60 minutes to 25 minutes between 6 am and 8:30 am 117
Saturday- Increase frequency from 60 minutes to 25 minutes between 7:30 pm and 11:30 pm 208
Sunday- Increase frequency from 60 minutes to 25 minutes between 9 am and 3 pm 372
Sunday- Increase frequency from 60 minutes to 30 minutes between 7:30 pm and 10 pm 155
Sunday- Increase frequency from 60 minutes to 25 minutes between 10 m and 11:30 pm 93
Route 31 Weekday- Increase frequency from 55 minutes to 30 minutes between 6:30 pm and 9 pm 630
Weekday- Increase frequency from 48 minutes to 25 minutes between 9 pm and 11:30 pm 567
Saturday- Increase frequency from 50 minutes to 25 minutes between 8 am and 10 am 91
Saturday- Increase frequency from 52 minutes to 25 minutes between 6pm and 9 pm 169
Saturday- Increase frequency from 48 minutes to 25 minutes between 9 pm and 11:30 pm 130
Sunday- Increase frequency from 50 minutes to 25 minutes between 8 am and 10:30 pm 775
Route 34 Weekday- Increase frequency from 60 minutes to 40 minutes between 6 am and 7 am 461
Weekday- Increase frequency from 60 minutes to 40 minutes between 1 pm and 11 pm 2,457
Route 34 Saturday- Increase frequency from 60 minutes to 40 minutes between 8 am and 10 am 126
Saturday- Increase frequency from 60 minutes to 40 minutes between 7 pm and 11 pm 221
Sunday- Increase frequency from 60 minutes to 40 minutes between 10 am and 9 pm 682
Route 95 Weekday- Introduce a Semi-Express Peak Period Route operating on a 30 minute frequency between 6 am and 9 am and 2 pm and 6 pm 3,528 2
Route 102 Remove the downtown loop to turn around at Richmond and Queens 0
Route 106 Weekday- Increase frequency from 20 minutes to 10 minutes between 6 pm and 9 pm 540
Total 17,998 2

A more detailed discussion of the recommended changes is provided in Enclosure II. The discussion includes high-level consideration of budget implications, and provides what is considered to be the most effective and efficient means to resolve each issue.

As indicated in the table above, the recommended service changes will require two expansion buses. The Expansion Bus requirements are included in the Commission’s 2021 Capital Budget Program, and as set out in the report recommendation, buses will be ordered subsequent to Municipal Council’s approval of the Assessment Growth Business Case for Transit Service Level Improvements.

Traditionally, service changes take effect in September of each year. While this is what has been assumed in this report, and is considered the preference, the ability to move forward with all recommended changes in September may be impacted by employee resource availability relating to the COVID-19 pandemic. Administration will work toward ensuring adequate staffing levels for a September implementation date, and will keep the Commission apprised as the year progresses.

Alternative Service Delivery Models

One of the six strategic directions set out in the 2020-2024 Five-Year Service Plan, is to explore alternative service delivery models (ASDs) in areas of the city that are currently unserved due to low ridership potential. The phasing plan set out in the Framework called for the implementation of the first ASD in the Innovation Park Industrial area as well as expanding service hour coverage in the Sovereign Road area as part of the 2020 Service Plan improvements. With the deferral of the 2020 Service Plan, it is now recommended for the first ASD to be implemented in the above noted areas as part of the 2021 Service Plan improvements.

As set out in Staff Report #2, dated January 27, 2021, the 2021 Work Program includes the development of an Alternative Service Delivery Implementation Plan that will cover the same period as the Five-Year Service Plan. It is anticipated this plan will be completed by early summer 2021, with the initial recommendations being implemented in September 2021.

Next Steps

Subject to Commission approval of the 2021 Conventional Transit Service Plan, the next steps associated with the implementation of the service changes include:

  • preparation/production of new schedules, layovers/time points, public timetables and Operator sign-up;
  • updating the AVL system;
  • updating schedule information for Google Maps; and
  • undertaking a marketing program including printed Ride Guide maps, on-board and stop level notices, website updates and social media, as well as internal info screen postings, Operator information sessions and an internal newsletter.

Enclosures

I – Draft 2021 Conventional Service Plan Summary

II – 2021 Conventional Transit Service Plan Changes

Recommended by:

Katie Burns, Director of Planning

Concurred in by:

Kelly S. Paleczny, General Manager